by Paul Shippee

What is peak oil? Peak oil refers to the point in time when the global production of oil and gas begins to decline. Picture a bell curve; we are now at the top of that curve. According to a 2005 United States Department of Energy report, “World oil peaking represents a problem like no other. The political, economic, and social stakes are enormous. Prudent risk management demands urgent attention and early action.”

One problem we find in thinking about peak oil is that it can induce either fear or complacency. The fear is about potential abrupt and severe shortages, rapid social destabilization, and economic contractions that may result in population die off. The complacency is about paralysis, ignorance, and wishful thinking about a future last-minute saving grace of technology to come up with the next energy cornucopia. Neither of these extreme stances will happen and these polarized modes of thinking are neither accurate nor helpful.

So, what is the real problem in thinking about peak oil? What is a constructive and sane way to consider peak oil? The first real problem is that peak oil will happen – global oil production will begin to decline pretty soon. About this there is no doubt. The other problem is that nobody can know exactly when this will happen. It is a very complex issue because nearly all of our “non-energy” –including food production— depend wholly on a decades-long tradition of a cheap and high-grade fossil fuel energy supply.

But this supply is finite. There is not an endless supply of easily recoverable oil and gas in the ground – and half of that is already gone. For all anybody knows the global oil production peak may be happening right now, or it may have already happened. So, the second problem in thinking about peak oil is the timing of peak oil cannot be known until a few years after it has already happened.

The third and very important problem with peak oil for most people is the near certainty that the transition to declining oil and gas world supplies will include a shrinking economy and a significant reduction in the comfortable and luxurious (some would say profligate and wasteful) life-style enjoyed by westerners during the century-long era of cheap high-quality oil and gas energy. Undoubtedly, we will see many new energy productions birthed from solar and renewable sources. But these will never be able to provide the power, efficiencies, and lifestyle comforts of the fossil fuel era. Being that these underground fuels are stored solar energy from millions of years ago, we are now using up the last hours of ancient sunlight. Wendell Berry writes, “We don’t know how to use energy, or what to use it for.”

The main point to understand about solar and renewable energy sources is that these will be capable of sustaining life, but at a significantly reduced level of comfort and convenience. But if we, as a society, wait too long to develop the infrastructure to make the lower quality renewable energy sources work for us, then their development will become expensive, difficult and unsustainable when oil and gas really does become scarce.

So, it seem the best policy is to wean ourselves off fossil fuel dependence long before it becomes an emergency. In other words, think of a society that has the brains, political will, and caring vision (and the oil!) to make a transition to a contracted, less energy intensive, and less comfortable or convenient lifestyle before is was forced to do so under the future stress of social/economic instability and more resource wars. Think of transitioning out of the fossil fuel era early while still leaving a huge amount of easily recoverable oil and gas in the ground – to be used by future generations, for medicine, valuable plastics, metals and other feedstocks, and also to build now the necessary infrastructure to bring on a variety of renewable energy sources, which could take twenty years.

This is the only way I can see to make the necessary transition in a peaceful, exciting, proud, and civilized manner. Most independent experts thinking now about peak oil agree that the post-cheap-oil transition is going to be necessary, difficult, and certain at some point in the near future. So, to avoid the extra and unnecessary social stresses of fear and complacency isn’t it best to accept the parallel certainty of contraction of lifestyle comforts by acting proactively now? Power down! as a recent book title suggests.

The vast majority of individuals may not be in a position to create such a policy simply by thinking this way. But by voting, by political advocacy, by making your voice heard, and by spending dollars now on energy conservation, small solar heating projects, food gardens, etc. –even though these may not look “economical” or convenient at this moment– we can demonstrate ways to survive well enough in the long emergency by simply using today’s sun today.

The bottom line is this: not having alternatives in place at the time when the global oil peak arrives will have tremendous economic and social consequences later. It is still too soon to tell whether we may or may not already be ten years too late.